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The Extinction of Coal

Unfortunately, Oracle has effectively decommitted Applets. This means you can no longer run the various CMP programs in a browser. You must download them and install them. You must have the most recent Java JRE (Java Runtime Environment) 1.8.0_112 32-bit or 64-bit. It no longer matters which browser you use.
Oracle has effectively decommited Applets, so this Applet will no longer run online in your browser, but it is a hybrid you can also download, install and run it on your own machine as standalone application. It will start and run faster if you do that. It will also work safely even if you have disabled Java in your browser.

The coal lobby has told everyone that there is enough coal to last 200 years. That is true only if: How long will the coal really last? It depends on the rate of growth in consumption of coal. How can you predict what that rate of growth will be?

The bottom line is the more you rely on coal, the sooner you will run out of it. This should be too obvious to mention, but the energy lobby have tricked the public into ignoring the effect of increased demand.

Applet failed to run. No Java 1.8 or later plug-in found.

How are the Calculations Done?

Here is the basic formula derived from calculus. The formula works for any finite resource, not just coal.
extinctionYears = 1. / rate * ln( rate * reserve / extraction + 1 )
The ramifications of the little equation inside this program are profound. The raw data came from the Coal industry lobby, the site that puts coal in the best possible light. You can browse source repository to see my Java code.

Dr. Albert Bartlett

Watching a video by Dr. Albert Bartlett inspired me to write this Applet. He had a look at my calculations and told me that the calculations of how long coal will last are the same as the ones he published in 1978 in his paper Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis in the American Journal of Physics. click to watch I highly recommend it.

DVDs (Digital Video Discs) of the talk, Arithmetic, Population and Energy by Professor Emeritus Albert A. Bartlett of the Department of Physics and the book, The Essential Exponential for the Future of our Planet are available from the General Book Department of the University of Colorado Bookstore. This book contains reprints of Prof. Bartlett’s papers on exponential arithmetic, energy, population and sustainability. More information is available online, CU Bookstore, Campus Box 36, Boulder, CO, 80309-0036
Phone (303) 492-7599; Fax: (303) 492-0420; Toll Free, (800) 255-9168

(Prof. Bartlett accepts no royalties from the sales of these DVDs and books.)

Papers can be downloaded from the website:
The talk, Arithmetic, Population and Energy click to watch can be seen in eight parts on YouTube.

If you don’t trust the formula or the Java program, write yourself a spreadsheet to cross check my program that calculates the amount of coal consumed and amount left in, year 1, year 2 etc. You only need elementary school math for that.

There is no such thing as clean coal. It is a marketing lie. It refers to capturing the noxious substances from the gases as coal burns in a lab. It has never been done commercially.
~ Roedy (born:1948-02-04 age:68)


Doctor Bartlett sent me four technical papers that might be of interest for further background. You will need Open Office to read them.

Trouble Shooting

Java Requirements and Troubleshooting

Coal is a Java Applet (that can also be run as an application) to Coal Extinction Calculator. You are welcome to install it on your own website. If it does not work…
  1. If Copy/Paste (Ctrl-C/Ctrl-V) do not work, you can turn them back on by modifying your java.policy file. This is not for the novice or faint of heart. instructions Your alternative is to download this program and run it without a browser.
  2. In the Java Control Panel security tab, click Start ⇒ Control Panel ⇒ Programs ⇒ Java ⇒ Security, configure medium security to allow self-signed and vanilla unsigned applets to run. If medium is not available, or if Java security is blocking you from running the program, configure high security and add to the Exception Site List at the bottom of the security tab.
  3. Often problems can be fixed simply by clicking the reload button on your browser.
  4. Make sure you have both JavaScript and Java enabled in your browser.
  5. Make sure the Java in your browser is enabled in the security tab of the Java Control panel. Click Start ⇒ Control Panel ⇒ Programs ⇒ Java ⇒ Security ⇒ Enable Java Content in the browser.
  6. This Java Applet (that can also be run as an application) needs 32-bit or 64-bit Java 1.8 or later. For best results use the latest 1.8.0_112 Java.
  7. You also need a recent browser.
  8. It works under any operating system that supports Java e.g. W2K, XP, W2003, Vista, W2008, W7-32, W7-64, W8-32, W8-64, W2012, W10-32, W10-64, Linux, LinuxARM, LinuxX86, LinuxX64, Ubuntu, Solaris, SolarisSPARC, SolarisSPARC64, SolarisX86, SolarisX64 and OSX
  9. You should see the Applet hybrid above looking much like this screenshot. If you don’t, the following hints should help you get it working:
  10. Especially if this Applet hybrid has worked before, try clearing the browser cache and rebooting.
  11. To ensure your Java is up to date, check with Wassup. First, download it and run it as an application independent of your browser, then run it online as an Applet to add the complication of your browser.
  12. If the above Applet hybrid does not work, check the Java console for error messages.
  13. If the above Applet hybrid does not work, you might have better luck with the downloadable version available below.
  14. If you are using Mac OS X and would like an improved Look and Feel, download the QuaQua look & feel from UnZip the contained quaqua.jar and install it in ~/Library/Java/Extensions or one of the other ext dirs.
  15. Upgrade to the latest version of Internet Explorer or another browser.
  16. Click the Information bar, and then click Allow blocked content. Unfortunately, this also allows dangerous ActiveX code to run. However, you must do this in order to get access to perfectly-safe Java Applets running in a sandbox. This is part of Microsoft’s war on Java.
  17. Try upgrading to a more recent version of your browser, or try a different browser e.g. Firefox, SeaMonkey, IE or Avant.
  18. If you still can’t get the program working click the red HELP button below for more detail.
  19. If you can’t get the above Applet hybrid working after trying the advice above and from the red HELP button below, have bugs to report or ideas to improve the program or its documentation, please send me an email atemail Roedy Green.
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Acquiring the Program

1.0 2009-11-29 free Java
more infoprecisscreenshotbrowse source repository
for the current version of Coal.
Calculates how long coal will last in the USA given various rates of growth in use.
download 437K zip for Coal Java source, compiled class files, jar and documentation to run on your own machine either as an application or an Applet.

Runs on any OS that supports Java e.g. W2K, XP, W2003, Vista, W2008, W7-32, W7-64, W8-32, W8-64, W2012, W10-32, W10-64, Linux, LinuxARM, LinuxX86, LinuxX64, Ubuntu, Solaris, SolarisSPARC, SolarisSPARC64, SolarisX86, SolarisX64 and OSX.

First install the most recent Java.

To install, extract the zip download with WinZip, (or similar unzip utility) into any directory you please, often J:\ — ticking off the use folder names option.

To check out the corresponding source from the Subversion repository, use the TortoiseSVN repo-browser to
access coal source in repository with [Tortoise] Subversion client on

After you have installed the jar, you can run it as an application. Type:

java -jar J:\com\mindprod\coal\coal.jar

adjusting as necessary to account for where the jar file is.

download ASP PAD XML program description for the current version of Coal.

$1989.00 US donated so far. If the CMP utilities solved your problem, please donate a buck or two, or donate to one of the charities featured in the footer public service ads throughout the website and get a tax receipt.

Coal is free. Full source included. You may even include the source code, modified or unmodified in free/commercial open source/proprietary programs that you write and distribute. Non-military use only.

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