To view this page, you should have the most recent Java installed
32-bit JRE (Java Runtime Environment) 1.8.0_102. Use the Firefox
browser for best results.
This Applet will run online in your browser, but it is a hybrid you
can also download, install and run it on your own machine as standalone
application. It will start and run faster if you do that. It will also
work safely even if you have disabled Java in your browser.
The coal lobby has told everyone that there is enough coal to last 200 years. That is true only if:
There is absolutely no growth in coal usage.
The three million new Americans born each year will use no coal whatsoever directly
or indirectly in their lives.
Coal won’t take up any slack as oil gets more expensive and rare.
America will refuse to sell coal to China.
No coal will be used to generate the electricity to charge the batteries of the
coming electric cars.
How long will the coal really last? It depends on the rate of growth in consumption
of coal. How can you predict what that rate of growth will be?
Historically growth in coal consumption has run at 2.86% per year.
The population of the USA grows at 1.1%
You expect coal use to increase as oil prices rise or concerns
about vulnerability to foreign oil take hold. Coal is used primarily for making
electricity. It is burned to make steam that drives electric generators.
As the USA converts to electric cars, it will need coal to
generate the electricity to power them since there is no other power source ready.
The USA has the more coal than any other country. It is only
natural that the USA will preferentially use domestic energy sources.
Top coal reserves
Top Coal Reserves
As other energy sources dwindle, there will be huge political
pressures to use still more coal to enable the USA to retain military superpower
The Chinese will be pounding at the doorstep with truckloads of
cash wanting to buy all the coal the USA will sell it.
Clean coal is illusive. The problem is it takes about
1/3 of the electicity generated to sequester the
CO₂ generated. This makes clean coal-fired electric power
quite expensive. The Norwegians are sequestering CO₂
from burning natural gas. Going to clean coal will consume the coal reserves much
faster just to get the same energy.
On the other paw, by some miracle, Americans could awaken to
the fact that burning all that coal will, through the global warmingCO₂
emissions, heat the planet so hot it will kill nearly every living thing and wisely
decide to leave the coal in the ground.
The bottom line is the more you rely on coal, the sooner you will run out of
it. This should be too obvious to mention, but the energy lobby have tricked the
public into ignoring the effect of increased demand.
How are the Calculations Done?
Here is the basic formula derived from calculus.
The formula works for any finite resource, not just coal.
The ramifications of the little equation inside this program are profound. The raw
data came from the Coal industry lobby, the site that puts
coal in the best possible light. You can browse source repository to see my Java code.
Dr. Albert Bartlett
Watching a video by Dr. Albert Bartlett inspired me to write
this Applet. He had a look at my calculations and told me that the calculations of how
long coal will last are the same as the ones he published in 1978 in his paper Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
in the American Journal of Physics.
I highly recommend it.
DVDs (Digital Video Discs) of the talk, Arithmetic, Population and
Energy by Professor Emeritus Albert A. Bartlett of the Department of Physics and
the book, The Essential Exponential for the Future of our Planet are
available from the General Book Department of the University of Colorado Bookstore. This
book contains reprints of Prof. Bartlett’s papers on exponential arithmetic,
energy, population and sustainability. More information is available online, CUBookstore.com CU Bookstore, Campus Box 36,
Boulder, CO, 80309-0036
Phone (303) 492-7599; Fax: (303) 492-0420; Toll Free, (800) 255-9168
DVD (Digital Video Disc) Price: $12 plus shipping
Book Price: $18 plus shipping and handling
(Prof. Bartlett accepts no royalties from the sales of these
DVDs and books.)
If you don’t trust the formula or the Java program, write yourself a spreadsheet
to cross check my program that calculates the amount of coal consumed and amount left in,
year 1, year 2 etc. You only need elementary school math for that.
There is no such thing as clean coal. It is a marketing lie.
It refers to capturing the noxious substances from the gases as coal burns in a lab. It
has never been done commercially.
~ Roedy(born:1948-02-04 age:68)
Doctor Bartlett sent me four technical papers that might be of interest
for further background. You will need Open Office to read them.
is a Java Applet (that can also be run as an application)
to Coal Extinction Calculator.
You are welcome to install it on your own website.
If it does not work…
If Copy/Paste (Ctrl-C/Ctrl-V) do not work, you can turn them back on by
modifying your java.policy file. This is not for the novice or faint of heart. instructions
Your alternative is to download this program and run it without a browser.
In the Java Control Panel security tab,
click Start ⇒ Control Panel ⇒
Programs ⇒ Java ⇒ Security, configure medium security
to allow self-signed and vanilla unsigned applets to run.
If medium is not available, or if Java security is blocking you from running the program,
configure high security
and add http://mindprod.com
to the Exception Site List at the bottom of the security tab.
Often problems can be fixed simply by clicking the reload button on your browser.
Make sure the Java in your browser is enabled in the security tab of the Java Control panel.
Click Start ⇒ Control Panel ⇒
Programs ⇒ Java ⇒ Security ⇒
Enable Java Content in the browser.
This Java Applet (that can also be run as an application)
needs 32-bit or 64-bit Java 1.8 or later.
For best results use the latest 1.8.0_102 Java.
It works under any operating system that supports Java
e.g. W2K, XP, W2003, Vista, W2008, W7-32, W7-64, W8-32, W8-64, W2012, W10-32, W10-64, Linux, LinuxARM, LinuxX86, LinuxX64, Ubuntu, Solaris, SolarisSPARC, SolarisSPARC64, SolarisX86, SolarisX64 and OSX
You should see the Applet hybrid above looking much like this
If you don’t, the following hints should help you get it working:
Especially if this Applet hybrid has worked before, try clearing the browser cache and rebooting.
To ensure your Java is up to date, check with Wassup.
First, download it and run it as an application independent of your browser,
then run it online as an Applet to add the complication of your browser.
If the above Applet hybrid does not work,
check the Java console for error messages.
If the above Applet hybrid does not work, you might have better luck with the downloadable version available below.
If you are using Mac OS X and would like an improved Look and Feel,
download the QuaQua look & feel
UnZip the contained quaqua.jar
and install it in ~/Library/Java/Extensions
or one of the other ext dirs.
Click the Information bar, and then click Allow blocked content. Unfortunately, this also allows dangerous ActiveX code to run. However, you must do this in order to get access to perfectly-safe Java Applets running in a sandbox. This is part of Microsoft’s war on Java.
Try upgrading to a more recent version of your browser,
or try a different browser e.g. Firefox, SeaMonkey, IE or Avant.
If you still can’t get the program working
click the red HELP button below for more detail.
If you can’t get the above Applet hybrid working
after trying the advice above and from the red HELP button below,
have bugs to report or ideas to improve the program or its documentation,
please send me an email at.
To install, extract the zip download with WinZip,
(or similar unzip utility) into any directory you please,
often J:\ — ticking off the
use folder names option.
To check out the corresponding source from the Subversion repository, use the TortoiseSVN repo-browser to access coal source in repository with [Tortoise] Subversion client on wush.net/svn/mindprod/com/mindprod/coal/.
After you have installed the jar, you can run it as an application. Type:
java -jar J:\com\mindprod\coal\coal.jar
adjusting as necessary to account for where the jar file is.
Coal is free. Full source included.
You may even include the source code, modified or unmodified
in free/commercial open source/proprietary programs that you write and distribute. Non-military use only.